This article presents a very interesting opinion on the launch of Xbox2. Basically, he says that while MS is counting on first mover advantage to place the Xbox 2 ahead of the next Playstation (the generally accepted reason for Sony's current lead) he thinks that may not happen because developers will be unwilling to develop for the Xbox if they will have to spend more money later on to also develop for the Playstation 3, the perceived leader until proven otherwise.
So the first mover advantage may be worthless. People would just wait for the Playstation, and when it comes out the Xbox would be basically dead. As an example he mentions Sega's Dreamcast, which came out before the Playstation but died anyway.
Again, interesting points. But I dont think this will happen. A year's lead (or even two, apparently this is potentially the time frame) will be a big advantage IF the launch is done right, IF the console's specs are the right ones and IF enough buzz is generated in the console's first six months. These are all big ifs. But everyone knows MS is very good at learning lessons from the first time around. The first Xbox was a reasonable success. And I'm sure the team learned a lot from the experience. I wouldnt bet against them this time. Especially with a significant time-to-market lead.
In any case, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Another very high profile battle for Microsoft.
