The WSJ has an article about Linux on the desktop (subscription required) today. Given that I'm going to work for Microsoft soon, I've been thinking a lot about this lately.
I think 2 of the biggest threats MS faces over the next few years are:
1) Linux/Open Source, both in back-end/server environments and on the desktop (enterprise and consumer)
2) The emerging (finally?) ability to truly use the Internet as your OS and access applications over a browser. This is currently being spearheaded by Google I believe, and I'll post more about this soon.
Focusing on point 1) for now...
Linux has already proven its a threat on the server. Companies are using it left and right. Who is it hurting more - MS or Sun? Probably Sun for now, but that doesnt mean MS isnt getting hurt as well. How much market share will it ultimately gain? All this now depends on a myriad of things - including Microsoft's ability to market its products, offer compelling new functionality (Longhorn?) and figure out pricing that people are not too unhappy about. But Linux on the server is a fact.
Now, Linux on the desktop is not there yet, but may be soon. It seems to be especially compelling on enterprise desktops for workers that only need internet access and a word processor. Again, in this situation, final penetration will depend on the cases both MS and Linux providers make for their products. But there are a couple things Microsoft has going for it:
- its huge base of existing applications - if a worker needs something more than just a word processor or spreadsheet, there is a good chance the app exists in Windows and not Linux
- its huge base of windows developers and its good development tools - there are probably many companies out there that would find it easier to build a custom app on Windows than on Linux
- the large costs of switching people over to Linux and retraining for those companies that have, up to now, been using Windows
Will these be enough?
The consumer desktop is another matter. I dont think there will be much penetration there anytime soon. Sure, its cheaper - you may be able to buy a $250 computer from Wal-mart with Linux. But I bet that 99% of the people who buy those computers are novices. As soon as they learn to use a computer (or their kids do) and want to run other apps (e.g. games) they will have to move up to a Windows PC. People will want the same experience most others have on their PCs. And they wont be able to get that unless:
1) ISVs start seriously developing apps for Linux as well as/instead of Windows. This isnt going to happen anytime soon. The economics arent there for them to do it.
2) Online apps get compelling enough that you can get essentially the same experience without Windows. This could hurt and is the second point I mentioned above. This combination would be an enourmous threat to MS. The truth is though that truly compelling online apps are still, at the very least, several years away. In the meantime many things can happen (Longhorn?).
Comments